Author(s)

T. Annaka & H. Yashiro

Abstract

* A seismic source model with temporal dependence of large earthquake occurrence for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Japan T. Annaka* & H. Yashiro* "TbAyo jE/ecfnc Power &?rWcgj Co., IK j-j, 7%aj/w-%2fzo 3-chome, Taito-ku, Tokyo, Japan Email: annaka@aed.tepsco.co.jp The Tokyo Marine and Fire Insurance Co., Ltd., 1-4 Nakase, Mihama-ku, Chiba, Japan Email: HARUMI.YASHIRO@tokiomarine.co.jp Abstract In order to evaluate instantaneous seismic hazard in Japan, we developed a seismic source model with temporal dependence of large earthquake occurrence. Fault sources generating large characteristic earthquakes repeatedly were individually identified from historical earthquake and active fault data. Recurrence intervals for large characteristic earthquakes are modeled by a lognormal distribution. Background seismic sources generating small and moderate earthquakes were continuously defined along the upper planes of four plates in and near Japan: the Pacific plate, th

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