Author(s)

J.E. Capilla, J. Andrew, A.Solera & S.S. Quispe

Abstract

In this paper a risk based decision-making methodolgy is presented that allows to simulate the operational management of a complex Water Resources System (WRS), assessing the risks involved during its operation. The method has been implemented to include conjunctive use of surface and ground water. The assessment procedure is based on simulating the performance of the system using synthesized hydrological records which are adapted to the system state at the beginning of the period being assessed. Then, processing these equally likely simulations, the probabilities of final state or failure for each element of the WRS are computed and accounted for in accordance with the decision-maker criteria. Using this simulation methodolo

Keywords