Author(s): I. A. Hansen
The paper discusses the current state of research concerning the modelling of
stochastic train operations in order to optimise the use of capacity by means of
analytical methods and micro-simulation.
Timetable quality is governed by
precise running and realistic recovery times, as well as optimal headway and
Analytic (queueing) models and micro-simulation are used for
estimation of waiting times, while combinatorial models and stability analysis by
means of max-plus algebra technique are suitable for network timetable
Operations quality can be modeled by the estimation of (admitted)
queue length and micro-simulation.
A recently developed probabilistic model for
the estimation of delay propagation in stations and junctions based on the
stochastic variation of track occupancy times depending on conditional
probability distributions of hinder by headway constraints and route conflicts is
presented, while stochastic timetable optimisation may help to determine a more
efficient distribution of running time margins and to increase punctuality in large
timetabling, waiting time, delays, rescheduling, level of service.
So far, railway timetables are based on deterministic running, dwell and headway
times between stations.
These times are mostly scaled in minutes and refer to a
virtual stopping point at the stations.
Small variations of the service times are
compensated by standard running time and dwell time supplements, as well as
margins between the train paths.
The amount of time supplements and margins
applied for scheduling, however, is mainly based on rules of thumb, sometimes
checked by simulation, and only seldom derived from statistical analysis of
real-world operations data.
Size: 558 kb
Paper DOI: 10.2495/978-1-84564-500-7/04
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