Author(s)

R. Aps, K. Herkül, J. Kotta, I. Kotta, M. Kopti, R. Leiger, Ü. Mander & Ü. Suursaar

Abstract

This paper investigates the applicability of Bayesian inference to oil spill related situation assessment in order to facilitate the Net Environmental Benefit Analysis (NEBA) based decisions in evaluating the threat or probable overall environmental impact of the spill. Bayesian networks are believed to be useful in integrating the NEBA related information imported from 1) oil spill scene surveillance, 2) simulation results on an oil spill incident with human response, and 3) ecological sensitivity maps. This paper exemplifies the use of Bayesian Belief Networks in answering the questions: can the oil spill be combated at sea, and if it cannot then is the oil threatening a sensitive environment? Keywords: net environmental benefit analysis, Bayesian inference, oil spill response simulation, Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea).

Keywords

net environmental benefit analysis, Bayesian inference, oil spillresponse simulation, Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)