Author(s): L. Gucma
This paper presents a new probabilistic method of navigational risk assessment.
The method is based on real time simulation results.
It is a complex method
which consists of three separate methods: real time ship manoeuvring
simulations, Monte Carlo method and analytical model of accident
It allows for extending the simulation results over the waterway
lifetime and all possible meteorological conditions.
The main advantage over the
fast time simulations is elimination of inaccurate human navigator models.
navigator behaviour is propagated to this method by means of several statistical
The growing complexity in today’s navigational safety research sets strong
demands to the scientists.
The real time simulation method, assumed as the most
advanced and accurate method nowadays , is not sufficient in several aspects
of risk analysis, especially in extending the researches for longer time period and
the detailed consequences analysis.
The paper presents new method which is
based on real time simulation and extends the results achieved in real time
simulation into the future.
Two approaches are used.
The first of them based on
Fourier transformations was originally proposed by Quy et al  and the second
one based on a pure probabilistic approach is used by the author [1, 3].
The detailed research procedure is presented on Figure 1.
The first stage –
real time simulations are used to determine the probability density functions of
ship position during passage along the analysed waterway and the distributions
Size: 643 kb
Paper DOI: 10.2495/SAFE070411
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