Author(s): P. Gaufrès & F. Sabatier
Densely low-lying populated areas and sand beaches along the Mediterranean
French coast are threatened by extreme sea levels.
In micro-tidal conditions, the
long term hourly water level record available at Marseilles Endoume
(1885–2003) has made possible statistical analysis usually computed on
continental hydrological parameters.
Frequential analysis tools, applied to time
series near to the million data, are implemented in order to provide a calculation
method for the stochastic meteorological storm surge component to characterize
coastal inundation and erosion risk.
Surge probability distributions tested with an
associated confidence interval (GEV, Jenkinson, Gamma, …) and extreme
values of the data fitting (Maximum Annual and Peaks-Over-Threshold) are
discussed with relative tests (stationarity, independence, homogeneity,...).
stochastic results are compared with sea-levels of morphological significance
correlated to coastal impact observations during storm events.
methods and tools presented contribute to a better knowledge of intensity,
frequency and duration of extreme sea levels associated with morphogenic
storms and provide guidelines for coastal risk mitigation.
extreme values, probability distribution, GEV, POT models,
Bootstrap, surge, sea-level, coastal risk, Rhône delta.
Size: 752 kb
Paper DOI: 10.2495/SAFE070061
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